Expectations are low, no matter who wins the election, but Asia cautiously views Harris as the better option.
With the US presidential election approaching on Nov 5, US bureau chief Bhagyashree Garekar and The Straits Times’ bureaus in Asia explore the impact on trade and security in the region under a prospective Harris or second Trump administration.
Expectations are low, no matter who wins the deadlocked Nov 5 election, but it would seem that Asia cautiously views Vice-President Kamala Harris as the better option. Many would agree with Malaysia’s Deputy Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Liew Chin Tong’s assessment that the difference between Ms Harris and Trump is a matter “not of direction, but intensity”. Neither can turn back the clock to a simpler, unipolar world.
Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan put it pragmatically while speaking to the media after attending the UN General Assembly in New York in September. “We will deal with the consequences of elections, and we will engage whoever is victorious,” he said.With diplomatic decorum, the Chinese Embassy in Washington said it hoped that whoever is elected is committed to growing ties. The furry emissaries may help, it ventured.
But others, like Professor Da Wei from Tsinghua University, caution that policy continuity is less positive than it seems because it perpetuates poor ties that exist now. An intriguing proposition is whether there could be an unexpected breakthrough under the unpredictable Trump, who positions himself as a dealmaker.
“It is possible that Trump would view it as leverage over Xi and would want to act tough on Taiwan. But it is also possible that he would be willing to sacrifice Taiwan in bilateral accommodation with China,” said Mr Poling. Dr Lynn Kuok, the Lee Kuan Yew Chair in South-east Asia Studies at the Brookings Institution, suggested that the differences between a Trump and Harris administration are likely overstated in the security realm.
“The emphasis on the networks of alliances and partnerships may not be as pronounced under Trump. But he could be more forceful and decisive in his words and actions against China and in support of the Philippines,” he added. Given the stresses associated with the return of Trump, it is understandable why Asia might prefer the continuity under Ms Harris, although her administration may extend US support for Israel in the bloody Gaza war, which has been condemned by large Muslim populations across the region.
But businesses are preparing to push back, counting on the fact that the narrative on Capitol Hill has changed since the first Trump term, when the usually pro-trade Republicans had stayed silent as debates raged on bilateral trade deficits. “Should Trump win, our trading partners need to prepare for tariff hikes,” she said. “While the timing, condition and level of increases remain unclear, there is no doubt that Trump remains the ‘tariff man’.”
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