It looks like we're going to end this month the same way we started it--with hotter-than-expected economic datapoints. This morning, we got the "truer" read on inflation with the January PCE report.
It looks like we're going to end this month the same way we started it--with hotter-than-expected economic datapoints.
This morning, we got the "truer" read on inflation with the January PCE report. It's kind of like the smarter cousin to CPI, but most importantly, it's the one the Fed is truly targeting when it talks about having a "2% inflation" goal.Above 4.6% would be badBelow or at the expectations of 4.3%, then markets could rallyAnd December's print was revised up two-tenths to 4.6%! That's why stocks are dumping this morning.
After the release, we also hit new highs on the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes. The futures are now pricing in rates atIt's interesting how we started the month with equities and risk in "relief rally" mode as the payrolls report ruled out the possibility that a recession had already begun. But we arewith much more of the 2022 vibe; anxiety over Fed tightening, and what that means for future growth prospects.
It's almost like we moved from "soft landing?" to "no landing!" to "hard landing" over the course of three weeksAnd I can tell you, if the market thinks 5.24% by year-end, there are plenty of people betting on even higher than that.one longtime trader told me yesterday, adding that they're also saying "disinflation" is the new "transitory," and the Fed will come to regret using that term so much.
." We already reported what ZipRecruiter said about a big slowing in job openings, which sent their shares down almost 25% earlier this week. "I think the odds are good that youAll told, if the Fed tightens a whole lot further now because of thesea recession this year. "Story developing badly," as Rupkey put it.
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