The Spartans impressed over the weekend as they hung tough against the Zags, but they get another tough game in Indy against the Wildcats. Kentucky's backcourt has shined, but our picks like Michigan State to hang around again.
The Over/Under on this game opened at 141.5, and sites have largely stuck with that number so far.
Michigan State has played well under that number in each of its first two games. The best comparison is the Spartans’ recent neutral site game against Gonzaga, which finished with a total of just 127 points. The Spartans also went under tonight’s number in their 73-55 win over the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks.
Meanwhile, Kentucky did play a high-scoring game against Howard, winning 95-63. But the Wildcats played to a lower total of 129 in a 77-52 win over Duquesne. While Kentucky might play at a faster pace than Gonzaga, there’s not much to suggest they can force Michigan State into an entirely different kind of game. The Wildcats are facing their best defensive opponent of the year so far, and the Spartans haven’t shown any particular explosiveness this season.
With that in mind, the Under is definitely the play here. In four combined games, these two teams have only played a game over 130 once so far, so going higher than 140 points feels like a big ask. It’s a cautious play — in a close game, these teams could both reach 70 points as they battle down the stretch — but there’s no reason at all to back the Over, based on what we’ve seen this year.Michigan State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.
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