Analysis: Labor is within sight of a thumping victory that could take the party into majority government and drive the Coalition out of more than a dozen seats | CroweDM
Labor is within sight of a thumping victory that takes the party into majority government and drives the Coalition out of more than a dozen seats.
The Greens have reached a rare height with an increase in their primary vote from 11 to 15 per cent in. This is unusual compared to recent elections. The party gained 13.1 per cent of the primary vote at the 2010 election but slumped to 8.7 per cent at the next two elections before climbing back to 10.2 per cent in 2019.
This reflects a crucial change in this survey compared to the one conducted two weeks ago. Put simply, this survey has asked respondents about their local independent candidates by name, in line with the ballot paper in their seats. If respondents do not have a “teal” candidate in their seat, it is not given as an option.This explains why the primary vote for independents has fallen from 9 to 4 per cent nationwide.
Some of the Coalition’s support has leaked to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and history suggests it does not all come back on preferences.