SINGAPORE — Even though the lack of progress in Myanmar has frustrated the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and impacted its members' unity towards this thorny issue, the five-point consensus to restore peace in Myanmar is still the best option on the table, several analysts said.
Any newer and harsher action plan would risk crossing the bold red line of non-interference that forms the bedrock of regional grouping, political observers said, adding that achieving a fresh consensus on such a politically complex issue would be challenging.
The Myanmar crisis was among the key issues discussed at the summit, in which Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo acknowledged a lack of real progress on the five-point consensus and called upon unity among Asean members in order to chart progress on the crisis. Indonesia is the 2023 chair of Asean. He added how the junta has “gained legitimacy” and support from various external parties, including in the form of military equipment and foreign direct investment, thus giving them less incentive to cooperate with Asean and implement the peace plan.
“Asean leaders will therefore not abandon the five-point consensus despite the lack of progress made. This is a document that has been agreed upon by all ten members of Asean ,” said Ms Lin, who is the lead researcher and co-coordinator for the Asean Studies Centre. “ reflected in the proposal of several member states during the Asean Summit to invite junta officials back to high-level meetings,” said Mr Dedi.
“Let's not forget how Thailand had organised an informal Asean meeting, together with Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam to meet with the Myanmar military junta leader Min Aung Hlaing,” said Dr Felix Tan, political analyst from the Nanyang Technological University, referring to a Track 1.5 dialogue on the issue initiated by Thailand.
Mr Dedi took a different view on the Track 1.5 approach, suggesting that they “should be interpreted as a series of parallel initiatives to engage with the military government in Myanmar, rather than a sign of disunity,” adding that Indonesia, too, held back door diplomacy engagements with Myanmar. Analysts highlighted that non-interference in the internal affairs of its members is one of the key principles in the Asean Charter.
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