Singapore is bracing for a higher risk of transboundary haze from June to October, driven by the impending development of El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Singapore may face hotter and drier weather in the second half of the year. Singapore is bracing for a higher risk of transboundary haze from June to October, driven by the impending development of El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole .
In a statement on Friday , the National Environment Agency and the Meteorological Service Singapore announced that El Nino conditions are forecast to emerge between June and July, which will likely result in warmer and drier weather. According to the MSS, the probability of an El Nino event occurring this year is over 80 per cent, citing warmer sub-surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Once fully established, the phenomenon will dictate regional weather patterns, particularly during the south-west monsoon season from June to September when the country receives typically lesser rainfall. While the initial strength of this incoming El Nino is expected to be moderate, there is potential to intensify into a strong event between August and September, said the two agencies. At the same time, the IOD is another climate phenomenon that is predicted to happen between July and August.
A positive IOD will result in cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean, suppressed cloud formation and consequently drier weather over Singapore. The two weather events will lead Singapore into a "more intense and prolonged" dry season extending into October.
"Both climate phenomena are expected to bring warmer and drier conditions to Singapore and the surrounding region from June to October 2026, and this will increase the risk of transboundary haze affecting Singapore and the region," said NEA and MSS, adding that MSS will continue to monitor climate developments and provide updates when necessary.
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