A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Spooked by a resurgence of already high global inflation and the ire of central bank hawks, the bond market is running scared.
The remarkable sight of 10-year Treasury yields back above 4% for the first time in almost four months is only matched by two-year yields at 15-year highs stalking 5%. Awaiting Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell's semi-annual Congressional testimony next week, as well as a February reality check on the red hot jobs market, futures are starting to price the chance a return to half-point Fed rate hikes this month.Neel Kashkari, a voter in the rate-setting committee in 2023, provided the latest spur on Wednesday by saying he was "open-minded" about a 50 basis point hike at the March 21-22 meeting.
Weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the latest Fed speakers take on unusual importance in such a febrile rates market. Futures pricing now shows a 20% chance of a half point move to 5.0-5.25% and possibility of a "terminal rate" as high as 5.5-5.75%. And
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