Just over half of the 50 U.S. states are exhibiting signs of slowing economic activity, breaching a key threshold that often signals a recession is in the offing, new research from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank report said.
That report, released Wednesday, followed another report from the San Francisco Fed from earlier in the week that also delved into the rising prospect that the U.S. economy may fall into recession at some point in coming months.
can also signal a downturn is on the way, in a signal that offers more near-term predictive value than the closely-watched bond market yield curve. The paper acknowledged its findings are akin to those of the Sahm Rule, named for former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, whoto economic downturns. The San Francisco Fed research, written by bank economist Thomas Mertens, said its innovation is to make the jobless rate change a forward-looking indicator.
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