Nickel was hot last month when it comfortably outperformed a better-known metal, gold.
A 30% rise in the price of nickel in the two months to early August has morphed into a 50% rise over three months, more than three-times the 15.5% rise in the headline-grabbing increase in the price of gold.
The latest price rise of more than $1/lb since Friday is a mainly about fear of a supply squeeze magnifying the effects of strong demand for stainless steel in China as it boosts domestic construction in the face of the trade war while EV demand steadily accelerates.
SOROWAKO, SOUTH SULAWESI, INDONESIA - 2019/03/28: Heavy trucks seen working at the nickel mining area. Nickel mining by the PT Vale Indonesia, a nickel plant in Soroako, South Sulawesi, Indonesia. A number of economists and observers predict an"On our assumptions, this would leave 218,000 tons of Indonesia nickel contained in ore exposed to the ban," Morgan Stanley said.
Macquarie, an Australian investment bank, had been assuming a nickel price for this year of $5.61/lb, falling to $5.44/lb next year, well short of the latest price of $8.28/lb.What the banks want to see is formal confirmation from the Indonesian Government that ban on the export of unprocessed ore is being brought forward and that it will become a permanent feature.
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