No gas? No votes. Subsidy cuts imperil Ukraine leader's reelection bid

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No gas? No votes. Subsidy cuts imperil Ukraine leader's reelection bid
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Ukrainian pensioner Nadiya Ignatiy says she has had the plum and cherry trees in...

SKRYHALIVKA, Ukraine - Ukrainian pensioner Nadiya Ignatiy says she has had the plum and cherry trees in her garden cut down for firewood since the government raised gas prices late last year.

Such frustrations could tip the balance in the March 31 election against Poroshenko, whose market-oriented reforms have helped stabilise a country battling Russian-backed separatism and encouraged Western investors wary of pervasive corruption. Inflation peaked at 43 percent in 2015 and the price of a cubic meter of gas is almost 12 times what it was in 2013.

“For the IMF and most of Ukraine’s western partners, Poroshenko is a lesser evil, he is an acceptable partner,” said analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. IMF country head Gosta Ljungman has said price controls were ineffective at providing social protection, and led to overconsumption and corruption, while liberalising the market meant richer households paid more, freeing cash for poorer ones.

Poroshenko moved back to second place after Ukraine’s Orthodox Church won independence from the Russian Church in January and the government plans pension increases on Friday that his opponents say are designed to bolster his ratings. After a Feb. 16 meeting with Tymoshenko, IMF chief Christine Lagarde stressed the urgency for Ukraine to continue reforms and safeguard its return to economic stability.

“The threat that cooperation with the IMF will be disrupted, and the threat that the country will again return to the prospect of default, is much higher if other candidates win,” said Serhiy Fursa, a Kiev-based investment banker at Dragon Capital.

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