No spending spree likely in last full Indian budget before 2024 election: Reuters poll

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No spending spree likely in last full Indian budget before 2024 election: Reuters poll
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The Indian government will focus on fiscal consolidation in its Feb. 1 budget, the last full one before a 2024 general election, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said slowing economic growth would limit it from spending more.

Breaking a tradition of government borrowing and spending, especially during an election year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has, since coming to power in 2014, largely stuck to a path of fiscal consolidation.

The median forecast from 37 economists polled from Dec. 13 to Dec. 21 was for the government to limit borrowing to 6.0% of GDP in 2023-24 - well above the historic average of 4%-5%. Predictions ranged from 5.7% to 6.8%. More than 80% of the economists, 29 out of 35, who answered an additional question said fiscal consolidation was likely to be the dominant theme in the budget Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to announce on Feb. 1.made clear that despite external shocks and global uncertainties it intends to meet the fiscal deficit target of 4.5% of GDP by the end of the 2025/26 year.

Economic growth likely slowed sharply to an annual 4.6% in the December quarter from 6.3% reported in the preceding quarter. It was expected to slow to 4.4% in the next quarter, the poll found.

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