Instead of measuring which yield curve inversions precede recessions, Bank of America watches for curves that predict future GDP growth.
Strategists at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch argue that the slope at the front end of the yield curve is the most important area to watch. They say this is because it does a solid job of indicating future GDP growth. The strategists' key measure is the spread between the three-month Treasury rate one year forward and the spot three-month rate, which has been inverted since March.
Strategists at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch argue that the slope at the front end of the yield curve is the most important area to watch. They say this is because it does a solid job of indicating future GDP growth. The strategists' key measure is the spread between the three-month Treasury rate one year forward and the spot three-month rate, which has been inverted since March.
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