Potential for armed conflict between the Islamic Republic and the United States – which would immediately imperil the world’s most vital waterway for seaborne crude shipments – is now dangerously imminent. Curiously, for now, the oil markets don’t seem to mind.
These maritime incidents appear to be attempts by Tehran to show their capacity for disruptive action in retaliation to the ‘maximum pressure’ strategy exerted by the Trump White House.
Iranian leadership, which has previously threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to oil sanctions, is risking a war with the U.S. in order to escape their economic dilemma and gain nationalist support at home. But as many dictators in the past, including Slobodan Milosevic and Saddam Hussein, they may not realize the worst-case outcomes of their actions.
Asymmetric warfare, regional Shia terrorist proxies, and IRGC-supported insurgent groups from Gaza to Lebanon, and from Syria to Iraq and Yemen would ensure prolonged and costly chaos in the region. If the mullah regime survives, and it is a big if, this would also foster a renewed desire in Iran to acquire a bomb.
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