One way to spot a partisan gerrymander, via FiveThirtyEight:
in the 2018 U.S. House elections with the share of seats the Democrats won.
Let’s start by imagining that Democrats win a smaller and smaller percentage of the votes in each raceFor example, if the average 2018 Democratic vote share dropped about 3 percentage points — to 52 percent — the Democrats would have won fewer than half the seats despite still receiving more than half the vote.
That gap is the “partisan bias” — the difference between an even split in seats and the share of seats a party would get if the vote were evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. In 2018, the partisan bias was about 4.8 percentage points, or roughly 21 fewer Democratic seats . But it’s hard to know, without more information, whether the partisan bias measured in 2018 is unusual. So let’s compare 2018 to all House elections since 1992, a period that covers the last three rounds of congressional redistricting.
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