The International Criminal Court's warrant for Putin is a big development — but it likely won't lead to his arrest, let alone conviction.
For the moment, South Africa’s government hasabout whether it will invite the Russian leader, but its choice will be telling. If South Africa ends up shunning Putin, it would be a sign that the court’s move has made Russia’s diplomatic position more precarious. A South African decision to invite Putin, by contrast, would be fresh evidence that international law struggles to keep pace with political realities.
At the moment, peace negotiations are moribund. But if the military stalemate continues, pressure for a settlement will inevitably grow. And Russian diplomats may well demand a removal of charges against Putin as a precondition for moving forward with talks.: The United Nations Security Council has the power to delay court proceedings if it believes they are an obstacle to restoring peace and security.
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