Philippines: Inflation figures surprised to the downside – UOB – by pabspiovano Philippines Inflation CPI Banks
UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting comment on the latest release of inflation readings in the Philippines.“Headline inflation picked up for a fourth consecutive month but at a slowerthan-expected pace of 8.1% y/y in Dec . This brought the full-year inflation rate to an average of 5.8% in 2022 , matching BSP’s forecast but coming in a tad lower than our projection of 5.9%.
“We think that the slower-than-expected headline inflation outturn in Dec is less likely to throw BSP off its rate-hike path. But, the softer inflation reading coupled with gloomier global growth prospects will allow BSP to continuously embark on a slower rate hike path in the coming months. We stick to our BSP call for two more 25bps hikes in 1Q23 before taking a pause at 6.00% thereafter. The first Monetary Board Meeting of the year is slated for 13 Feb.
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