Political economy suggests that geoengineering is likely to be used

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Political economy suggests that geoengineering is likely to be used
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Other countries would probably object to unilateral tinkering with the climate, and might fight over how much cooling to allow

Framework Convention on Climate Change. Humanity’s record of following through on its climate promises is dismal. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen by 15% since 1994. The average global temperature, relative to the norm for 1951-80, has gone up by about 0.5°C over that period. And in 2018 annual emissions reached their highest level ever. To have a good chance of stopping global temperatures rising more than 1.

Such costs might be borne, were it not for the dreadful political economy of climate-change mitigation. It is the stock of carbon in the atmosphere that determines how much warming there will be, not the flow. Warming today is the consequence of past emissions. Correspondingly, cuts are irksome when they are made but bring benefits only in the future. Furthermore, the benefits of reducing emissions are spread globally whereas the costs—of new power plants, vehicles and so on—are local.

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