The political risks are rising for Vladimir Putin as the Ukrainian military begins its much-awaited assault to dislodge Russia from territory it illegally seized last year, with the Russian president acknowledging Kyiv’s “offensive potential.”
into western Russian regions bordering Ukraine are raising questions over whether Putin can control the situation, according to several members of the Russian elite, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.“This is a serious challenge for the authorities,” said one well-connected member of Russian diplomatic circles.
“This determines the main worry of the Russian leadership,” this person said. “If contemporary weapons will be supplied and the Ukrainian army will be modernized, then — even without formal membership — Ukraine in this form can represent an existential threat for Russia.”“It seems to me this is further stimulus for Russia to continue the military operation,” he added.
But others cautioned that Simonyan’s words represented no more than a fresh propaganda ploy by the Kremlin because any attempt to freeze the conflict at the current lines was only aimed at acquiring more time for the Russian army to rearm to attack again. Public tirades by Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner mercenary group and close Putin ally, against Russian army leadership for the failings of the war serve to “let off steam” and take place with Putin’s permission because the criticism is channeled through someone who presents himself as a patriot, Stanovaya said.But “at some moment,” said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political consultant, infighting among factions in the elite around Putin “could spiral out of control.
But unspoken behind that analysis, Markov said, is concern about a potential repeat of the issues that led to Russia’s chaotic retreat around Kharkiv last fall, when poor management and inadequate communications between units led to “big problems” and crumbling Russian resolve.
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