Poll: DeSantis surges to 5-point lead over weakened Trump in 2024 primary matchup

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Poll: DeSantis surges to 5-point lead over weakened Trump in 2024 primary matchup
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A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.

"Anyone seeking the presidency who thinks that the Constitution could somehow be suspended or not followed, it seems to me would have a very hard time being sworn in as president of the United States," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellThe new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that more and more rank-and-file Republicans are starting to agree.

Yahoo News and YouGov did not create a formal “likely voter” model for this poll. Instead, respondents were asked if they voted in their state’s 2016 Republican primary or caucus — one of several possible predictors of future voting behavior. At the same time, however, DeSantis leads Trump 44% to 32% among those who identify as “not very strong Republicans” or independents who lean Republican — a sign that the composition of the primary electorate may be crucial if the two candidates do wind up duking it out in 2024.

Unlike in 2016 — when a succession of Republican candidates split the anti-Trump primary vote, dividing the opposition and enabling Trump to secure the GOP nomination without majority support — there is so far little indication that any other potential Trump challenger can compete with DeSantis. Relatedly, most Republicans said in late October that Trump would be a stronger rather than weaker presidential candidate in 2024 than he was in 2020. Today, that 38-point gap has collapsed to 13 points, with less than half of Republicans now saying Trump would be stronger and nearly a third saying he would be weaker.

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