A 'best case scenario' would see some non-essential retail shops and industries reopen in early to mid-May, further social distancing measures relaxed over the summer, but the elderly and vulnerable facing strict 'shielding' restrictions lasting until a vaccine is found.
LONDON, ENGLAND - APRIL 16: A man wearing a face mask outside Harrods, which has been closed and the windows adorned with rainbows.
A “best case scenario” being worked on by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies hopes to end lockdown restrictions for certain non-essential shops and industries in the short-term, from early to mid-May. This week, health secretary Matt Hancock and other senior ministers insisted that it was too early to talk about an exit strategy from the lockdown, partly because government aides think that doing so will discourage people from following the rules in the meantime.
No exact plan to relax the lockdown has been finalised, government sources told BuzzFeed News, because it was too early to take decisions without knowing if the transmission rate of the virus, “the R number”, was coming down to a manageable level, and whether proposals to test and trace potential cases were viable. If either of these did not go to plan, restrictions would have to be extended again or reintroduced at a later date, they warned.
People would be allowed out of their homes for non-essential shopping in this scenario, but most social distancing measures would remain in place. Some ministers are lobbying Downing Street to partially relax some other of the harshest rules in this first stage, such as those stopping people from sitting in parks or taking more than one form of exercise a day.
SAGE scientists are also looking at lifting restrictions by age, raising the prospect that people under a certain age threshold could be able to go back to their offices sooner, organise social gatherings or go to the pub, but those above the limit cannot. Neither is a realistic prospect any time soon, with a vaccine thought to be a year to 18 months away — although scientists at Oxford universitythey could produce one by September — and doubts about how long immunity lasts. Until one of those two outcomes is achieved, the elderly and vulnerable must continue to be “shielded” with as many of the social distancing measures remaining in place as possible, a minister told BuzzFeed News.
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