Russia had called for a ceasefire during Orthodox Christmas celebrations in January.
Russia's leadership has used religious holidays to call for ceasefires, attempting to"influence the situation on the frontlines," the ISW said. Moscow likely did not agree to a ceasefire during Orthodox Easter in 2022 because the Kremlin's forces were in a stronger position then than during Orthodox Christmas, the think tank said.
A Ukrainian serviceman prepares to fire a rocket-propelled grenade from a launcher during a training exercise in the Donetsk region on April 7, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moscow could use an upcoming religious holiday to call a ceasefire, which could work in the Kremlin's favor, the ISW said on Sunday.During the Christmas period in January, the Kremlin used a ceasefire to prepare Russian forces for a winter push, the ISW said.
"The Kremlin may call for an Easter ceasefire because such a pause would disproportionately benefit Russian troops," it added. It would not only have a military advantage, but it would play into Moscow's information operation to paint Putin"as the true protector of the Christian faith," the think tank said.
The move could allow the Kremlin to triumph in the contested eastern city of Bakhmut, which has seen months of bitter fighting, as well as shore up defenses for Ukraine's spring counteroffensive, the ISW wrote. Western and Ukrainian officials have long discussed a concerted push from Kyiv, expected to take place through the spring.
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