Meteorological Service Singapore warns of a potentially intense and prolonged dry season due to expected El Nino and positive IOD, increasing transboundary haze risk and prompting agency preparedness.
The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) has issued a warning that the upcoming dry season could be more intense and prolonged compared with recent years. This forecast is tied to the anticipated development of El Nino conditions between June and July, which are expected to bring warmer and drier weather to Singapore and the surrounding region in the second half of the year, along with a heightened risk of transboundary haze.
According to the MSS media advisory released on Friday, May 29, there is a more than 80 percent chance of an El Nino event occurring in 2026. This is supported by key indicators such as warmer sub-surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific. El Nino is a climate pattern marked by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
It typically occurs every three to five years and can last up to a year, often disrupting global weather patterns and bringing hotter, drier conditions to Southeast Asia. The most recent El Nino event was between 2023 and early 2024, after which conditions shifted to La Nina, contributing to wetter weather in the region throughout much of 2024 and into early 2026.
The MSS states that El Nino's influence on Singapore's weather is expected from June to October, especially during the southwest monsoon season from June to September, when dry conditions are more likely. Historically, during the last strong El Nino in 2015, Singapore's total rainfall from June to September was about 35 percent below the long-term average.
El Nino events are also associated with higher temperatures; in 2016, average temperatures from March to May reached 29.2 degrees Celsius, which is 1 degree Celsius above the long-term average, making it Singapore's second warmest period for those months on record. While the upcoming El Nino is forecast to start at a moderate strength, it could intensify toward the later part of the southwest monsoon season, around August to September.
In addition to El Nino, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is predicted to develop between July and August. The IOD is a similar phenomenon that occurs in the equatorial Indian Ocean. MSS explains that during a positive IOD, cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean reduce cloud formation, leading to drier conditions for Singapore and the surrounding region. Notably, Singapore's driest year on record was in 1997 when both El Nino and a positive IOD occurred simultaneously.
The combination of these two climate patterns is expected to intensify and prolong the dry season, potentially extending it into October. Drier and warmer conditions increase the likelihood of peatland and vegetation fires in the region. If such fires occur near Singapore and prevailing winds blow smoke toward the island, transboundary haze could negatively affect air quality.
Authorities have stated that the 28 government agencies under the Haze Task Force, chaired by the National Environment Agency (NEA), are prepared to activate response plans if air quality deteriorates. The public is advised to monitor 1-hour PM2.5 readings for real-time air quality and refer to the 24-hour Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) for health advisories.
They are also encouraged to ensure air purifiers are in working condition and to follow official updates via the NEA website, the myENV app, and social media channels
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