The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) has issued a rare red warning in its 17-page Haze Outlook 2026 report, signaling a high risk of severe transboundary haze affecting Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore in the remaining months of this year.
Southeast Asia faces a high risk of severe transboundary haze for the rest of 2026, with conditions expected to peak between August and September due to The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) said it has issued a rare red warning in its 17-page Haze Outlook 2026 report, which signals a high risk of severe transboundary haze affecting Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore in the remaining months of this year.
This is only the second time SIIA has issued its highest-risk rating since it launched the annual outlook in 2019, following a similar assessment in 2023. Haze returned to Singapore that year as hotspots surged in parts of Sumatra amid El Nino-driven dry conditions.
For 2026, SIIA said the heightened risk this year comes as shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have increased cost pressures on the agricultural sector, in part due to fuel shortages and the spike in fertiliser prices. At the same time, the growing demand for biofuels has raised concerns that some producers may expand their plantations by turning to cheaper but unsustainable land-clearing methods, such as the use of fire.
The high-risk season also coincides with tightening budgets amid global economic uncertainty. In Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto will be facing his first high-risk dry season, the report noted. Budget challenges in Indonesia were also flagged in the report, which stated that the country's Ministry of Forestry and provincial governments had warned that budgets for fire management are under pressure amid cuts to public spending.
The potentially severe dry season this year will serve as a stress test for fire prevention and land management measures for the region, the report said. SIIA chairman Simon Tay said The forecasts warn of a severe dry season, but we must not be fatalistic. There is much that can be done to prevent the worst and strengthen climate resilience, energy and food security, and regional cooperation.
The challenge is to ensure that sustainable practices are maintained across entire supply chains, including by small and medium-sized enterprises that may be operating under tighter economic pressures. The report also called for stronger cooperation among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to tackle transboundary haze.
It noted that the recently inaugurated ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control aims to strengthen policy coordination on haze mitigation and land management, complementing the scientific data and satellite haze monitoring provided by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre in Singapore. Historically, the most serious haze incidents have occurred when El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole have coincided, such as in 1997 to 1998, 2015, and 2023, the report stated.
It results in hotter weather across the region, less rain and drier conditions, with authorities previously warning of a super or Godzilla El Nino referring to more intense El Nino conditions. Weather conditions in the remaining months of 2026 could potentially be one of the hottest and driest dry seasons on record, increasing the danger that land fires could spread out of control, SIIA said in its report.
El Nino conditions are underway as of this month, with a 63 per cent chance of a strong El Nino occurring, SIIA said, citing the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The SIIA also pointed to another climate phenomenon that could coincide with El Nino the Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate pattern affecting the Indian Ocean.
However, the think-tank noted that this phenomenon was harder to predict, with no agreed probability estimate of its phases. The Meteorological Service Singapore has predicted that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event will develop between July and August, which could amplify hot and dry conditions. Mr Tay said during a media briefing on Wednesday that the outlook will become clearer as the peak of the dry season approaches in August.
He added that the severity of haze would depend on factors such as the location of fires and prevailing wind conditions. He noted that the 2015 haze, which coincided with a strong El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, had severe health and economic consequences. According to figures cited by SIIA, the episode caused an estimated US$16.1 billion (S$20.9 billion) in economic losses in Indonesia and up to US$1.42 billion in losses in Singapore.
While weather remains a major factor, the report highlighted how geopolitical disruptions are linked to haze concerns
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