Analysts warn that terrorist groups could exploit the ongoing power vacuum in Syria following rebel forces' takeover, posing a security threat to Southeast Asia. Experts call for increased vigilance and collaboration between regional authorities to prevent the resurgence of extremist activities.
As well as calling on authorities in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia to guard against terror threats, experts also warned that the rebel takeover in Syria should be “a real cause for concern” for China.
Meanwhile, a representative from Indonesia’s Counter-Terrorism Agency has urged for collaboration between national agencies, as well as neighbouring countries. On Dec 17, Syrian state media reported that Ahmed al-Sharaa, head of the rebel coalition, said that all armed opposition groups in the country would be dissolved and rebel fighters would be brought under the authority of the Defence Ministry, as the new government worked to build a functioning state.
In Syria, its fighters are scattered and holed up in small cells in the country’s eastern deserts ever since it suffered a string of defeats against Assad’s regime, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces and other rebel groups. IS declared an end to its caliphate in Syria in 2019. Meanwhile, previous international support for Syria, currently under a transitional government led by Mohammed al-Bashir, could be dwindling. US President-elect Donald Trump has already announced that the country will not become involved in Syria when he comes into power for the second time in January.
“ control of the region and their broader influence could bring battlefield skills, provoke unrest, threaten stability, and challenge China’s regional security and investments,” he said. Ping cautioned that extremism and radicalisation in Syria could accelerate and spread across the Middle East and Central Asia, eventually posing a threat to China’s western Xinjiang region.
While the potential spread of extremism to China’s Xinjiang region is a concern, Raffaello Pantucci, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research of S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that there is currently “very thin evidence” suggesting the TIP would escalate its activities to target China in the near future.
"And we haven’t seen any attacks , so maybe it’s working,” he said, adding that China is also likely to offer financial support and establish economic structures for the incoming regime in Syria. “For instance, is likely to further enhance its border security and intelligence collaborations with its neighbours. Other measures may include the deepening of counterterrorism cooperation with partnering nations, and bolster their security infrastructures.”Syrian caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir delivers the Friday sermon at the Umayyad Mosque, after rebel fighters ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad on Dec 13.
Even with its fighters in disarray, IS managed to launch 259 claimed attacks across Syria this year, up from 121 the year before, according to US-based think-tank, the Hudson Institute. Some experts believe a conflict between IS and the ruling forces in Syria could prompt the former to make another call for their sympathisers in Southeast Asia to join their ranks.
Militants with the Islamic State group are seen from the outskirts of Suruc at the Turkey-Syria border, after placing their group's flag on a hilltop at the eastern side of the town of Kobani, Syria, on Oct 6, 2014. In June of this year, Malaysian police arrested eight people including a former lecturer for alleged links to IS. The eight suspects had reportedly come from various occupational and economic backgrounds, including housewives and educated professionals.
“Increased awareness of the complexity of Middle Eastern conflicts and the trauma caused by the rise of ISIS—rooted in false promises—has reduced the appeal of extremist narratives,” he told CNA. However, experts believe that IS can still exploit the current power vacuum and instability to make a comeback.
TERRORISM SYRIA SECURITY THREAT SOUTHEAST ASIA COLLABORATION
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