Thank you, Janet, Jay, and the BLS for capping the surge in bond yields. But hotter markets could stave off a cooler economy.
“Today is history, tomorrow is Barron’s,” according to our marketing slogan from way back when. That was brought to mind by our Oct. 30 cover story, which exhorted readers to buy bonds instead of crying about them. Due to a confluence of factors, long-term Treasury bonds saw their biggest rally this past week since the headlong plunge in yields in March 2020 in the teeth of the Covid pandemic.
The week began with the Treasury outlining its quarterly borrowing plans that, while still massive, contained somewhat fewer longer-term securities than market participants had feared. That set off a massive covering of short positions in Treasury bonds and futures . The unemployment rate, derived from a separate survey of households, ticked up by one-tenth of a percentage point, to 3.9%, but for the wrong reason. Unlike in past months, when the jobless rate climbed in part because of more entrants into the labor market, in October the labor force dipped.
The 4.1% year-over-year October rise in average hourly earnings, down from September’s 4.3% pace, may be headed higher as a result. The Employment Cost Index, a more inclusive measure to Fed policy makers, was up 4.3% from a year earlier in the third quarter, reflecting a tight labor market.
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