While a projection of 165 Tory seats is short of the 170 needed to form a majority, it would be enough to defeat any Liberal-NDP coalition.
In 1983, just after Brian Mulroney took the helm of the Progressive Conservatives, his party boasted anagainst 27 per cent for the Liberals, which were then still led by Pierre Trudeau. A year later, these poll numbers manifested in Mulroney capturing what is still one of the biggest landslides in Canadian history, with Mulroney winning 211 seats to the Liberals’ 40.
In March 2018, in the wake of Trudeau’s much-criticized official visit to India, an Angus Reid Institutefound that 40 per cent of respondents wanted a Conservative government, against just 31 per cent who wanted to stick with a Liberal one. But the Liberals continued to dominate seat counts by virtue of what their strategists call “vote efficiency”: Focusing on ridings with neat three-way ties in which a seat can be captured with a plurality of less than 40 per cent. The current minister of employment, workforce development and official languages, for instance, represents a riding he captured with barely one-third of the popular vote; Randy Boissonnault won Edmonton Centre in 2021 with just 33.7 per cent.
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