In the long run cutting Russia off from the messaging network used to make cross-border payments could end up threatening America’s financial dominance
to comply. The co-operative of banks, based in Belgium, vows to be politically neutral. Many European countries, such as Germany, do a lot of business with Russia, and may oppose the plan. But there is a precedent. In 2018 America managed to forceto ditch Iranian banks even in the face of European resistance. America would probably have its way again. It could threaten to pull its own banks from, or to seize infrastructure vital to the network, such as a data centre in Virginia.
Other weapons of economic disruption exist. America could, for example, blacklist big Russian financial institutions, preventing its own banks from dealing with them. That would probably be as disruptive for Russia as a disconnection fromwithout undermining the global financial architecture as much. Yet the risk of immediate blowback would remain.
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