The jobs report nails it: It’s a slowdown, not a recession, says TimMullaney
The jobs report showing America added 196,000 jobs in March isn’t great news or awful news — it just tells us that what we thought we knew is basically accurate.
“Latest jobs numbers show a damn healthy economy,” University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers said on Twitter. “Over the past three months, the economy has produced on average +180k jobs per month. Which is smoking.” But the real truth is that incomes, in particular, have done a stop-start pattern over those decades — growing when the economy is in the wide part of expansions, stagnating when it’s not, and declining sharply after the 2008 financial crisis, when the median household lost nearly 10% of its purchasing power — an outcome just as devastating in the short term, but far less appreciated, than the sharp inflation of the late 1970s that shaped a whole generation of policy makers’ thinking.
So it’s possible to understand that right now is a good time, but also understand that there is little to no danger of the economy overheating soon and that there is a giant backlog of work to do for middle-income families. Whose prospects and spending are, after all, the bedrock of a stock market predicated on profits from selling large numbers of people cars, restaurant meals, houses and the like.
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