The movement to skip the Electoral College just passed a major milestone. Via FiveThirtyEight:
Related:So if we assume that these bills will only pass in states where Democrats can push them through without GOP support, what other states might join the compact in the next few years, and would those states be enough to reach 270? New Mexico, where the compact has, looks like the most likely next signatory, which would add five electoral votes.
And even if the party accomplishes that difficult task, it’s not safe to assume that those states will automatically join the agreement; Delaware and Oregon have had Democratic-controlled governments for years and still have not joined . Opposition to the effort will likely ramp up, too, if the compact begins to look like a serious possibility. Right now, if the compact has any chance of being realized, it likely won’t be for many years.
Ultimately, the biggest challenge to the National Popular Vote agreement may be a legal one. Election-law expert Rick Hasen at the University of California, Irvine School of Law told FiveThirtyEight he expected there would be serious legal challenges to the compact if it crosses the 270-elector threshold.
That isn’t necessarily rational, by the way, since which party the Electoral College benefits can switch around from year to year. In 2008 and 2012, for example, it
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