The sequence of the new virus's genome reveals none of the telltales genetic engineering would leave in its wake
AURIC GOLDFINGER, villain of the novel which bears his name, quotes a vivid Chicago aphorism to James Bond: “Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, the third time it’s enemy action.”
The politics of the covid-19 pandemic mean that this time such theories have an even greater appeal than normal. The pandemic started in China, where the government’s ingrained urge to cover problems up led it to delay measures that might have curtailed its spread. It has claimed its greatest toll in America, where the recorded number of covid-19 deaths already outstrips the number of names on the Vietnam War Memorial in Washington, DC.
It is in the collection of viral genomes assembled during those studies that scientists have now found the bat virus closest to SARS-CoV-2. A strain called RaTG13 gathered in the same cave in Yunnan shares 96% of its genetic sequence with the new virus. RaTG13 is not that virus’s ancestor. It is something more like its cousin.
The first animal to come under serious suspicion was the pangolin. A coronavirus found in pangolins has an RBD essentially identical to that of SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that it might have been the virus with which the bat virus recombined on its way to becoming SARS-CoV-2. Pangolins are used in traditional medicine, and though they are endangered, they can nonetheless be found on menus. There are apparently no records of them being traded at the Huanan market.
Further research may make when, where and how the virus got into people clearer. There is scope for a lot more virus hunting in a wider range of possible intermediate species. If it were possible to conduct detailed interviews with those who came down with the earliest cases of covid-19, that genetic sampling could be better aimed, says Dr Embarek, and with a bit of luck one might get to the source. But the time needed to do this, he adds, “might be quick, or it might be extremely long”.
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