Trouble could spill over into Colombia
the United States has used force to change governments in the Caribbean basin. Nowadays the country is trying to extricate itself from wars, not get into a new one. Yet President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that “all options are on the table” to remove Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolás Maduro, from power. What if he means it? Experts think a military intervention would be unwise, for many reasons. Some spoke on condition of anonymity.
No doubt the superpower would defeat Venezuela’s 130,000-strong armed forces. “The Venezuelan military would disintegrate very quickly,” says Evan Ellis of theArmy War College. Yet that would merely bring on a second problem. A new government would need that same army to maintain order. Although many ordinary Venezuelans would welcome an invasion, others would resist. Thousands of gangs and militias could create chaos.
, which shelters in Venezuela. Hence a third risk: starting a regional conflict. “I don’t think there’s a military solution to this that doesn’t create the likely situation of a protracted regional war,” says Cynthia Arnson of the Wilson Centre in Washington.
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