'Turkey was the model to which the reformers aspired — a Muslim democracy based on the rule of law and parliamentary government. But, instead of the Arab states becoming more like Turkey, Turkey became more like them.' -Dan Hannan
The New York Times says the final runoff will be a “nail-biter.” The Washington Post calls it a “knife edge.” In fact, Erdogan won the first round 49.5% to 44.9%, and, short of some black swan event, he will finish with a comfortable majority.Other critics, Turkish and foreign, talk of fraud, but this is pure cope. Turkey is not a country where election results are falsified. All sorts of other things might tilt the scales.
Erdogan’s victory in the first round echoes that of Hungary’s Viktor Orban last year. Like Orban, Erdogan faced a coalition of critics ranging from socialists to ultra-nationalists. Like Orban, he was roundly denounced overseas as a dictator. Like Orban, he benefited from having an underwhelming opposition that was mainly popular with foreigners.
In 1924, having abolished the Ottoman Caliphate and embraced Westernization, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk decided that the young Turkish republic needed European-style political pluralism. So he asked a group of friends, mainly old comrades from his army days, to establish an opposition party. They, knowing his temperament, begged to be excused, but Ataturk was having none of it.
If these observations seem trite to you, it is because of how you were educated. For most people, the advantages of multiparty democracy and limited government take second place to fiercer loyalties. Their party is full of good people, the other party is full of bad people, and ensuring that the good people are in charge matters more than abstract constitutional proprieties.
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