A well-known recession indicator doesn't have analysts and economists as worried about the fate of U.S. markets as some might think.
U.S. stocks are holding steady despite what many see as a reliable recession indicator, and Wall Street experts are similarly unfazed — at least for now.
To many, an inverted yield curve signals an oncoming recession. But analysts and economists are largely split — and mostly underwhelmed — by the latest test of the market's resilience. "The importance of the yield curve is how long are we going to be inverted for? [...] The longer you have this situation, the higher the risk goes. I think if we can go a few days inverted and then start to steepen again, I don't think the concerns are as worrisome. ... Our big area of focus is the semiconductors, and they've been a great leadership [group] for the market overall over the last six years. Every major sell-off in the stock market has been preceded by underperformance.
"When something happens for the first time since 2007, people pay attention, and that's what happened on Friday when you got the inversion. However, when you look at the economy ... and also when you look at the determinants of the yield curve shape and move, this is not signaling recession.
Singapore Latest News, Singapore Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Global stocks tumble as bond markets sound U.S. recession warningInvestors ditched shares on Monday and fled to the safety of bonds while the Jap...
Read more »
Stocks log worst day in over 2 ½ months as bond market flashes recession warningU.S. stocks close sharply lower Friday, with all major indexes logging their worst day in nearly three months, after a downbeat round of economic data in...
Read more »
This market warning is the biggest sign yet of a recession — but when?“If we don’t get a trade deal ... and China winds up in a hard landing, you can rest assured that the global market will follow as well,” said one economist.
Read more »
Stocks typically outperform for a long time even when the bond market is flashing recession signalSome investors may be freaked out over the recession signal being sent by interest rates, but if history is a guide, there is still time to capture more gains in the stock market.
Read more »
Bond yields are edging higher, easing stock market's recession jittersChina stocks continued their slide on Tuesday on economic red flags in the bond market, while US futures signal a slight gain on Wall Street.
Read more »
Goldman says investors are looking at the wrong bond market indicator and recession is less likelyGoldman Sachs strategists, in a note, said the yield curve has inverted, but in an unusual way, and it's not sending the same powerful recession signal it has in the past.
Read more »
Stocks tumble as bond market flashes possible recession signalStocks are in retreat Friday, as a key measure of the U.S. yield curve inverted and a downbeat round of European data underlined worries about global growth...
Read more »
The bond market flashed recession. So why is the stock market booming?A reliable recession predictor flashed in the US bond market last week: the most closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve inverted. At first, stocks shuddered. Then they shrugged it off.
Read more »
'Flashing amber': Global stocks tumble, bonds rally on U.S. recession riskInvestors ditched shares on Monday and fled to the safety of bonds as risk asset...
Read more »
Bonds are flashing a huge recession signal — here's what happened to stocks last time it happenedThe bond market is edging closer to signaling a recession, but don't panic, stocks could have a lot more to run even if the feared 'yield curve' inverts, according to history.
Read more »