Theresa May must pass her Brexit deal next week. The odds are against her.

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Theresa May must pass her Brexit deal next week. The odds are against her.
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The British prime minister must convince at least 75 lawmakers to change their minds.

By William Booth , William Booth London bureau chief Email Bio Follow Amanda Ferguson and Karla Adam Karla Adam London correspondent covering the United Kingdom Email Bio Follow March 22 at 2:54 PM LONDON — If Britain is to leave the European Union in Theresa May’s “orderly Brexit,” then the British prime minister must quickly succeed at something she is not very good at: convincing lawmakers to back her.

Then May must cajole dozens of zealous, ideologically driven, hardcore Brexiteers in her own Conservative Party to do the same. These are Tory rebels who not only shot down the prime minister’s deal in two landslide losses but tried unsuccessfully just a few months ago to oust her from 10 Downing Street.

Under the new deadlines, if May gets her withdrawal agreement through Parliament next week, Britain will leave the bloc on May 22. If May strikes out, then Britain has until April 12 to decide what it does next. House of Commons Speaker John Bercow threw a wrench into the works earlier this week — a lifetime ago in British politics — saying May could not offer a third meaningful vote, dubbed MV3, unless the deal was “significantly” different.

Cynics predict the DUP could be bought with money. After all, the party agreed to prop up May’s minority government after her disastrous loss in 2017, in part, for a billion pounds of government spending in Northern Ireland.Nigel Dodds, the deputy leader of the DUP, said in a statement that nothing had changed as far as the withdrawal agreement was concerned.

But whips and watchers who count votes in Parliament assume that if May manages to turn the unionists her way, some of the hard-line Brexiteers in the Conservative Party will cross over.

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