Their polls almost always fade as races progress, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s standing especially is likely inflated. But several factors suggest a potentially significant 2024 impact.
to an independent candidacy. Not only do third-party candidates often poll much better than they ultimately perform, but Kennedy’s famous heritage gives him name recognition that few others enjoy.
as a whole could be on track for some of their best and potentially most consequential performances in recent presidential election history. A handful of quality polls conducted since Kennedy changed his affiliation earlier this month show him taking as much as 16 percent of the vote . And when the polls include Kennedy and liberal activist Cornel West, they total as much as 17 percent of the vote — holding both major-party candidates below 40 percent in aThose are some of the best polls we’ve seen for third-party candidates since Ross Perot, the last major one to actually compete in a presidential race, in the 1990s.
The best electoral performances for third-party candidates in the 21st century came in 2016, when the two major-party candidates ceded nearly 6 percent of the vote to Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, independent Evan McMullin and others. The best Johnson polled in that campaignKennedy’s and West’s polls right now — West also polled as high as 9 percent in Fox’s survey when Kennedy wasn’t included — hark back to 1996.
One factor working in their favor is the two major-party candidates. It’s no coincidence that the best third-party results in the 21st century came in 2016. That was in large part because exit polls showed only 4 in 10 Americans liked eitheris still considering fielding a bipartisan ticket, and that doesn’t even account for the Libertarian and Green parties, which generally make up most of the top non-major-party vote totals.
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