This under-the-radar freight indicator is raising concerns that the U.S. economy is slowing.
for April, " Wilson said. "There is no broader measure of economic activity for the U.S. than Freight shipments."
The April freight report, written by Donald Broughton and published by Cass Information Systems, painted a bleak picture for the industry. Broughton, founder and managing partner of Broughton Capital, said he was "more cautious" today than since he "began predicting the recovery of the U.S. industrial economy and the rebirth of the U.S. consumer economy in the third quarter of 2016.
A container delivery truck heads for one of the terminals at the Port of Long Beach in Long Beach, California.To be sure, Broughton said more data in coming weeks was needed before calling whether or not this is "merely a pause in the rate of economic expansion, a retrenchment, or the beginning of an economic contraction." But falling oil prices, and five straight months of negative shipment volume are cause for concern.
"Evidence is accumulating that this is more than 'just a pause'," he said in the report. "If a contraction occurs, then the Cass Shipments Index will have been one of the first early indicators once again."
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