Two New Reports Say Coronavirus Infections Are More Common Than We Think. These Scientists Are Doubtful.
titled “Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?,” two other Stanford faculty argued that “projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.”, or a preprint, about their Santa Clara County study. By early April, there were 956 confirmed cases there. But based on their serological study of 3,300 people, the researchers concluded that the actual number of infections was between 48,000 and 81,000.
In an unexpected twist later that night, Sood said he then learned that a draft of his paper, which had not been released as part of the press conference, had mysteriously been posted to RedState.com, a right-wing blog. The site took it down upon his request — though not before a few scientistsIn an interview Tuesday afternoon, Sood said he had no idea how the report wound up online without his permission.
“I don't want ‘crowd peer review’ or whatever you want to call it,” he said. “It’s just too burdensome and I’d rather have a more formal peer review process.”“You can’t report the conclusions without providing scientific evidence — or you shouldn’t,” said Natalie Dean, a University of Florida biostatistician.A Stanford medical student administers a coronavirus antibody study in Mountain View, California, on April 3.
Both California studies used tests from Premier Biotech, a Minnesota-based company. These tests were used because they were donated and their accuracy claims were independently verified at Stanford, Sood said in an interview last week. That matters because the Santa Clara study found antibodies in 50 of the 3,330 participants, or 1.5%. Since the test’s false-positive rate could be as high as 1.7%, it is possible that many of the so-called positives were not, in fact, positive.
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