U.K. GDP Could Fall 35% in Second Quarter, Then Bounce Back Quickly

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U.K. GDP Could Fall 35% in Second Quarter, Then Bounce Back Quickly
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Despite everything, there is a fragile feeling of optimism in the U.K. 🔐

LONDON — With British Prime Minister Boris Johnson out of the hospital, and slowly recovering from the coronavirus, and hopes for a lockdown easing next month, there is a fragile feeling of optimism in the air.

The OBR’s report said the net effect of the coronavirus impact and the U.K.’s policy response is likely to result in “a sharp increase in government borrowing” that will leave public sector debt permanently higher as a share of GDP, but still at a reasonably comfortable level. The optimistic second-quarter scenario also sees unemployment rising by more than 2 million to 10 percent, and declining more slowly than GDP recovers, with government policies “supporting households through the shock.”

He said that local governments had already begun to administer government grants to businesses, while “millions of pounds are going out the door” in bank loans. The furlough scheme should be active within days, he added. “The best way out is to grow the economy and keep as much [activity] as possible intact.”

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