US Core PCE: Banks Preview, inflation still too hot Inflation UnitedStates Fed Macroeconomics Banks
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure , will be released by the US Bureau of Economicon Friday, March 31 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of seven major banks.
Core PCE is expected to stay at 4.7% year-on-year while rising 0.4% in February . The headline is seen increasing by 0.2% in February, and a slowdown in the annual rate from 5.4% to 5.3%. “We see a +0.36% advance for the core PCE in February and MoM declines for both income and consumption .”“The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, core PCE prices, likely decelerated to a 0.
further in March. We are roughly in line with the consensus, which should limit any market reaction.”“Core PCE inflation should rise 0.31% MoM in February based on details of CPI and PPI, a softer increase than in January but with core PCE YoY moderating only slightly to 4.6% and with risks of a print that remains at 4.7%. Some strong details of CPI will still be supportive of PCE inflation, including persistently strong shelter prices.
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