Our predicted mild January follows the coldest December in 5 years.
After the coldest December in five years, Washington is awash in warmth to open 2023, with impressive 50s and 60s for highs frequently this week. We favor this warm pattern to continue into at least the middle of the month when the weather may turn more variable. However, this warm start will be difficult to overcome, and so we expect a milder-than-normal January overall. Precipitation will probably end up below average.We predict temperatures in January to be about 2.5 to 5.
Our warm start to the year is being driven by a big dip or trough in the jet stream along the West Coast. This is drivingand drawing mild air from the Pacific Ocean over most of the Lower 48 states. The second half of January may see more of a volatile weather pattern that would allow some shots of Arctic air. During La Niña winters like this one, we typically see some cold air intrusions during January; however, the weather models are not showing much of this yet. We need to see a zone of high pressure develop around Alaska to divert the jet stream northward over the West Coast, which would force it to crash south over the eastern United States and deliver cold air.
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