Stocks are getting knocked around to start 2023. Is another bad year ahead?
The first trading days of January loom large on Wall Street as being able to foretell the U.S. stock market’s direction for the full year. What does that mean for 2023?
That should provide some solace to followers of these “first-days-of-January” indicators, who are biting their nails over the stock market’s weakness out of the starting gate on the first trading day of the year. On the one hand, notice that there are greater odds of the market rising if it also rises in the first sessions of January. On the other hand, notice also that even when the market falls in those first sessions the odds of the market rising for the remainder of the year are still above 50%.
There are several additional reasons not to put too much weight on these first-days-of-January indicators:
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