Even before the first horrific phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has run its course, scientists are worried about the second wave of the disease.
It could crash worse than the first, killing tens of thousands of people who did such a good job of sheltering in place they remain virgin ground for the virus. Or it could be a mere swell, with so many people having been infected without symptoms that levels of immunity are higher than realized.
COVID-19 is such a new disease there is no solid data on the immunity of survivors. But given its similarities to coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome , it's expected to convey at least some immunity. “It would mean we’d be getting to herd immunity through natural immunity” even before a vaccine is developed, said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health, who co-author a paper in the journal Science modeling what COVID-19 might look like after the initial pandemic has passed.
“This outbreak has predominantly been on the two coasts. Wave two will be in the interior of the county where there are a lot of susceptible people,” he said.Here's how we may learn to cope with coronavirus death toll.Another factor is whether the virus survives longer in cooler, drier weather. That’s why the flu is more common in winter, its virus survives longer and people are more likely to be indoors in close contact.
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