Will other candidates attempt well-timed strikes against frontrunners, as Harris did to Biden?
Kamala Harris is close to the catbird seat now. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images Intelligencer staffers Jonathan Chait, Benjamin Hart, and Ed Kilgore discuss who’s up, who’s down, and who should drop out among the vast field of 2020 Democratic contenders.
Ed: It depends, of course, on the evening each candidate draws. It’s fascinating to speculate whether Harris would be doing so well if she had appeared on night one.Jon: If Harris is smart, she’ll shift toward positivity. She’s on the edge of alienating voters she needs by going after Biden, and now he’s bracing for hostility, so she can keep him off balance.
Ed: Yeah, though he’s been doing a lot of what I’ve compared to Odysseus lashing himself to the mast. [A reference to Hickenlooper.]Ben: He did have a pretty good debate, though.Jon: I actually came away liking him less.Ed: Nobody has any reason to drop out before the next debate, actually. Swalwell did because he was dealing with a primary challenge for his House seat. The participation thresholds for the third debate in September could kill off half the field.
Ben: Yeah — what does it say that he of all people raised the most in the second quarter? Though I thought he had a solid debate performance, he’s lost ground in almost every poll since — and consistently polls at zero percent of black voters. Jon: Harris, Warren, Sanders. I’m going to boldly predict Biden just deflates, but I’d actually make him my second or third most likely candidate to win the nomination. Also with the caveat that I have no idea what’s going to happen.Ben: I’m going with Harris, Warren, Buttigieg.
Ed: It depends, of course, on the evening each candidate draws. It’s fascinating to speculate whether Harris would be doing so well if she had appeared on night one.Jon: If Harris is smart, she’ll shift toward positivity. She’s on the edge of alienating voters she needs by going after Biden, and now he’s bracing for hostility, so she can keep him off balance.
Ed: Yeah, though he’s been doing a lot of what I’ve compared to Odysseus lashing himself to the mast. [A reference to Hickenlooper.]Ben: He did have a pretty good debate, though.Jon: I actually came away liking him less.Ed: Nobody has any reason to drop out before the next debate, actually. Swalwell did because he was dealing with a primary challenge for his House seat. The participation thresholds for the third debate in September could kill off half the field.
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