The upcoming year may not be one of blockbuster gains but will instead see the American economy avoid both the inflation that haunted 2022 and the recession that materialized later in the year as the Fed raised interest rates to stem price increases.
have led to the by-now-familiar exchange of of I-told-you-so recriminations and nothing-to-see-here reassurances in Washington, where every new shred of economic news is often regarded as a referendum on the White House.
Bernstein believes that the economy is already transitioning from the unsustainably torrid job gains of 2022 to a more measured pace, its guardrails set by a Federal Reserve“I think there are reasons to be optimistic that the path to a steady and stable transition is plausible and credible,” Bernstein says.
, see an affront to his anti-inflation policies and react by raising interest rates. With borrowing money becoming ever more expensive, the thinking goes, employers will start to lay off workers instead of hiring them.The Fed “sees the labor market as the mechanism by which they can solve the inflation problem,”
, a necessary corrective that will see hiring and economic growth lose ground — without plummeting. Even so, he does not believe the slowdown will resemble the kind of recession that followed the mortgage crisis of 2007.In the broadest sense, the Biden administration is asking Americans to accept a 2023 that may feel tougher than it should as the price of foundational stability.
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