In 2018 China's government tried to reduce the economy's dependence on debt, which slowed domestic demand and hurt exporters to the country
economy had an inauspicious start to 2019. Markets went into a tailspin and America’s government was locked in a seemingly interminable shutdown. But matters have not played out as dismally as they might have. The government in Washington is open again. America and China appear close to a trade deal which, although modest in its achievements, would nonetheless reflect a welcome easing of tension between the world’s two biggest economies.
But there is more to the manufacturing swoon than Mr Trump’s trade war. The downturn bears a striking resemblance to the bout of economic trouble that began in 2015. Then, too, global manufacturing activity faltered. That was partly due to the bust that followed America’s extraordinary shale-oil boom. But China was also a big influence on exporters’ fortunes. Germany, for instance, has come to rely on China’s voracious appetite for its capital goods.
The downward spiral was quickly halted. China put its plans to lift capital controls on ice; the stimulus taps were turned back on. The government eased monetary policy and began spending with gusto. Officially, China’s fiscal deficit expanded only modestly in 2015 and 2016, to just under 4% of. But the government is adept at using special financing vehicles, primarily at the local-government level, to borrow and to direct funds to projects; these do not affect the official deficit figures.
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