Why Amy Klobuchar’s strength in Minnesota may not translate to the primaries.
Now, it is possible that both Klobuchar and Smith have special appeal with white voters who don’t have a bachelor’s. There may simply be something about Minnesota that gives Democrats there the ability to win this group of voters that national Democrats have a hard time reaching.
However, white voters are where Klobuchar’s sizable electoral advantage seems to stop. Klobuchar’s worst performances relative to Smith came in the most racially diverse areas of Minnesota. In the nine state House districts where less than 50 percent of the population is non-Hispanic white, Klobuchar outran Smith by an average of just under 4 points, about half of her statewide advantage.
To the Democrats who believe that the party’s key to victory is pumping up minority turnout, Klobuchar must look like a pretty ordinary candidate. That raises an obvious concern for Klobuchar’s campaign: Nonwhite voters make upof the Democratic primary electorate, and at least in recent cycles, it’s proven very difficult to win the nomination without them. This could really hold her back in the primary, especially if her advantage among whites without a college degree isn’t as large as it looks.
Educational statistics are among the population that’s age 25 or older. All demographic data in this article is from the five-year estimates in the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2013-2017 American Community Survey. We should note that just because a candidate does better in counties with higher numbers of non-college-educated whites doesn’t necessarily mean that she did better among those voters themselves. However, in this case, the fact that
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