Public polls show so much pessimism and yet the data shows a strong economic recovery
Several reporters and commentators recently have expressed wonder at public polls. They show so much pessimism and yet the data shows a strong economic recovery. A popular media explanation is hardly surprising. It contends that the people are ignorant of what is really happening. In one sense, this interpretation is perplexing. After all, people interact with the economy daily. Whether they know the statistics and press releases or not, they cannot miss reality.
To be sure, Americans are pessimistic about economic prospects, and have become more so in just the last few months. A recent Harris poll reported that some 56% of Americans see the economy on the wrong track, a big change from last June when a similar poll indicated that only some 39% felt this way. Also according to Harris, 57% of Americans see the economy as “weak,” up from 43% last June.
And as the journalists point out, the data does look good. Despite supply-chain problems, the economy created almost 6 million jobs between last January and November, some 700,000 in just the last two months. Unemployment as a percent of the workforce has dropped from 6.7% a year ago to 4.2% in November. Hourly earnings have risen at almost a 5% annual rate, a pace not seen in years. New home sales have jumped 7.5% in just the last two months.
People can see these immediate positives. They are clearly willing to take advantage of them. The average American’s confidence that he or she can easily find a job in the present environment is apparent in the so-called quit rate – the percent of workers leaving their job voluntarily. It is at an all-time high. But looking beyond the immediate situation, people also see plenty about which to worry.
There is, for instance, the new Omicron variant of Covid. Not unreasonably, people fear that it might spark a new round of lockdowns and quarantines. It has already halted much international travel. The average American has also learned in the past couple of years that politics in Washington and state capitals could impel such lockdowns and quarantines even if the new variant does not require them.
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