The stock market is likely to go up no matter who the president is. Policies, though, matter for individual companies and sectors.
It is Wednesday, which means it is time for the Republican debate, one that will feature eight candidates not named Donald Trump trying to convince voters they deserve to be the party’s candidate for president. And that means it is time for investors to think about the policies that could be implemented a year and a half from now and the stocks that could be hurt or helped.
But politics does matter for individual stocks. Look no further than the Inflation Reduction Act, which was signed into law just over a year ago and led to companies announcing some $110 billion in new investments in clean energy, or the CHIPS Act, which included $52 billion to build semiconductor factories in the U.S. Those laws certainly provided a big boost to industrial stocks, which was one of just three sectors to outperform the S&P 500 over the past 12 months.
Energy is fairly obvious. Biden’s IRA spent oodles of cash on clean energy, and Republicans will likely want to dial that back and focus on drilling for fossil fuels. Of course, oil companies, which have focused on capital discipline and returning cash to shareholders, might not be inclined to drill, even if it becomes easier. But there is an issue both sides will have in common, according to Shah—permitting.
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