The earliest could be 2,000 years.
. This rules out a Star Trek-like scenario from occurring anywhere in our lifetimes, or even our grandchildren's, for that matter. to a nearby star system with the hope that alien life exists on one of its planets. These approaches rely on the assumption that the star system not only has alien life but is also civilized enough to communicate back. The other question worthy of exploring is how many such civilizations possibly exist.
While the Drake Equation is more of a thought experiment rather than an actual calculation, the authors of the new study take the thought experiment a little further and explore the likelihood of theand life evolving into a CETI. It also attempts to determine at what stage of the star's evolution would a CETI be born. By treating these parameters as variables, the authors computed an optimistic and a pessimistic outlook of the scenarios.
In the pessimistic scenario, the sun would have to cool down much more and may have crossed 75 percent of its life, while there is only a 0.001 percent probability that a CETI would emerge. This would reduce the probability of CETIs occurring in the Milky Way to just 111, and two-way communication with one of these would happen in the next 400,000 years.
Myr to receive one signal from other CETIs. Our results may quantitatively explain why we have not detected any alien signals so far. The uncertainty of the results has been discussed in detail and would be alleviated with the further improvement of our astronomical observation ability in the future.
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