'The yield curve never inverts when conditions are bad. It inverts when conditions are good,' Blackstone's chief investment strategist says.
That spread has been in and out of inversion several times since it first flipped earlier this month for the first time since before the 2008 financial crisis.
"We know we can start our countdown timers" to a recession, Zidle said. "It's an average of about 20 months." An inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession in the last half-century, but sometimes it takes up to two years before the economic downturn occurs. An inversion occurs when short-term bonds pay out higher yields than long-term bonds.
Not all market watchers are sold on the reliability of bond yield inversions as a recession indicator. Some suggest things may be different this time, in part because an increasingly negative yields on overseas bonds has
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